Ten years after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that split the nation and unleashed turmoil, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Authorities and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical could occur with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two prominent commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Governmental Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and seismic public vote.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can emerge unexpectedly and can gain traction rapidly," the commentator remarked. "It is my view that the political architecture of our islands remains very unstable."
Book Publication Intends to Provoke Discussion
The team have examined the political, economic and societal reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to encourage dialogue on the matter with a series of public talks that will lead them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We must avoid a national vote on a binary, ambiguous question whose implications have remained undefined because then you end up with an highly divided society where those defeated are unable to accept losing and the people who have won are uncertain exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has built momentum, but both governments and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity whether or when there might be a referendum.
Insufficient Serious Debate
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the idea but the actual thinking which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in academia but scarcely any government figures or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, which kind of country should be desired? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the volume, no writer supports unification or the status quo. Both authors two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the case for a united Ireland and the case against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and governmental frameworks.
Discussions encompass national emblems, levies, health services, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of unionist unrest. The objective is to inform and stimulate dialogue.
"There is significant curiosity in the issue but there is still lacking a dialogue," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acknowledgement of the idea that there may exist reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A referendum in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where the electorate report they favour unification but oppose greater financial contributions or adopting a different emblem to acknowledge pro-UK communities' British culture.
"Authorities in Dublin should work out what the plan from nationalist groups is beyond just saying: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we love you'," stated O’Toole.
Probability of Referendum
The journalist believes a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "You could have just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a negligent secretary of state who states: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Both nationalists and unionists have credible, valid perspectives, he commented. "One side will win here and somebody will ultimately be defeated but both parties has possesses something to acquire from the opposing viewpoints."
Request for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said the analyst. "This involves Britain. It is a UK matter as much as it is an Irish question."
